Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies offers analytic data and predictive modeling services to businesses, organizations, and political campaigns.  Since the 2004 Presidential campaign, modeling has allowed campaign decision makers to communicate and directly appeal to subgroups of voters about specific issues and values.  Modeling, also known as microtargeting in the political world, allows Republican campaigns to effectively contact voters that are beyond their traditional coalition universe.  In 2009, Magellan entered the Republican microtargeting market. Over the past year, Magellan has tested a different modeling methodologies involving automated interviewing and the integration of census and election return data with consumer data. We have found these modifications to the modeling process dramatically reduce the cost without a decrease in model predictive accuracy.

The Microtargeting Process and Republican Environment
The process of microtargeting is based upon “clustering” voters together that share similar individual characteristics such as age, gender, registration, vote history, race, household income, and consumer data.  Currently, microtargeting projects in the Republican Party are performed using voter files and consumer data provided by the Republican National Committee (RNC).  Republican microtargeting firms often contract with the RNC to access voter and consumer data, field a 3,000N, survey, process the response data through modeling software, and append issue, candidate intensity, and “GOTV” predictive codes back to individual voters on the voter file.

A Different Approach to Modeling to Reduce Cost and Increase Interviews
Magellan has been testing a new modeling approach that can significantly reduce costs without a decrease in predictor confidence levels.  This is done by using the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey data, precinct level election return databases, and a shorter questionnaire survey instrument.  We are also testing a hybrid survey data capture methodology that uses both live and automated survey interviewing techniques.  Our goal is to provide microtargeting and modeling services based on 5,000 to 10,000 interviews rather than 3,000 interviews.  This will reduce margins of error, increase confidence levels of predictors, and ultimately elect more Republican candidates.  Our goal is to be able to offer a five to eight issue model, derived from 5,000 to 10,000 interviews, for as little as $20,000.

Summary
As we head into the 2010 election cycle, we look forward to working with Republican candidates and organizations that desire and demand a more cost effective and robust microtargeting and voter data modeling option.