New Hampshire US Senate Survey 7/23/14
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Magellan Strategies BR today released the survey results today of an automated survey of 1,618 likely New Hampshire voters.  The survey was conducted July 16-17. The margin of error for a survey of this size is 2.43%.  The survey was commissioned by Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire.  Aided by a dismal political environment, Scott Brown is within 5 points of defeating Jeanne Shaheen.
 
Download the survey release and toplines by clicking  HERE .
Download the survey presentation by clicking  HERE .
Download the survey crosstabs by clicking  HERE .
 
Survey Findings
Consistent with other surveys, the overall political environment in New Hampshire favors Republicans. 
 
  • Only 35% of likely voters think things in the country are headed in the right direction, while 65% think things are on the wrong track. 
  • President Obama’s job approval is an abysmal 36%, while a strong majority (56%) disapproves of the job he is doing. 
 
A traditional demographic shift in previous mid-term elections benefits Republican candidates.
  
  • In the past two presidential elections, female voters have enjoyed a 6-point advantage over men relative to total composition of the electorate.  During the past two mid-term elections, the female advantage has been only 2 points. 
  • Young voters (18-34) represented 28% and 22% of the electorate in 2012 and 2008, respectively.  However, during the past two midterms, young voters have fluctuated between 10% and 14%. 
  • Mid-term elections have also historically produced a Republican advantage relative to party composition of the electorate.  During the last two presidential elections, the Republican advantage over Democrats on average was only 3.8 points.  However, during the last two midterms, the Republican advantage averaged 8.3 points.  
 
As a result of an abysmal political environment and mid-term election demographics, Scott Brown is in a respectable position to defeat Jeanne Shaheen. 
 
  • Currently, Scott Brown is only down by 5 points (41% Scott Brown/46% Jeanne Shaheen) with 13% undecided. 
  • Among undecided voters, President Obama’s job approval is only 10% while 72% disapprove. 
  • Among undecided voters, only 14% think things in the country are going in the right direction while 86% think things are on the wrong track.
  • Lastly, Brown still has room to grow among undecided voters.  Fifty-three percent of undecided voters have yet to form an opinion of him.  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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